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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 12 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025
...Temperatures moderate in the East; West and Central U.S. warm up...
...Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast/New England...
...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy rainfall, heavy mountain snow and strong winds to the West Coast beginning tonight...
The upper trough responsible for producing strong winds, frigid temperatures and lake effect snow in the East will lift north today. Strong winds will diminish, the polar airmass will moderate, but some weak lake effect snow will linger through Thursday, due to westerly flow off of the Lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a large upper ridge will gradually migrate into the Central U.S. over the next couple of days. Southerly flow into the West and Central U.S. will generate above average temperatures for much of the Plains. Highs in the 60s and 70s will represent +20-30 degree anomalies for much of the Northern and Central Plains on Thursday and Friday.
An amplified trough in the eastern Pacific will begin impacting the West Coast tonight. A strong surface low pressure system will likely bring strong winds, heavy rain and heavy mountain snow to the West, with the heaviest precipitation focusing over California on Thursday. Winter storm warnings are in effect for portions of the southern Sierra, while winter weather advisories are in effect for northern portions of the Sierra for this Thursday. High wind warnings and wind advisories are also in effect for much of coastal California and southern-central Oregon tonight through Thursday. A slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of the Bay Area as well as upslope areas of the Sierra Nevada on Thursday, while scattered to isolated flash flooding will also be possible as far south as the Los Angeles metro area. Warm advection out of the south will contribute to above average temperatures across the West over the next few days.
Kebede